From: Commanders' Weather Corp 154 Broad St, Suite 1517 Nashua, NH 03062 Tel: 603-882-6789, Fax: 603-882-6661 ******************************************************************************************************************* Please hold for the PRIVATE and EXCLUSIVE use of: George David and the crew of "Idler" ******************************************************************************************************************* Event: 1999 SORC Forecast location: inshore and offshore Miami, FL Forecast for: Friday, March 5, 1999 Outlook for: Saturday, March 6, 1999 Forecast prepared: 0600est Friday, March 5, 1999 Summary... 1) High pressure over North Carolina this morning will move to offshore Chesapeake Bay this evening and also increase in strength a) this means the winds will not swing far to the right today, probably staying east or north of east all day - also good wind speeds for late morning and afternoon since the high will be strengthening 2) Currently it is clear and cool again a) along the shore and in the Bay, winds are very light offshore, 320-360/ 2-6 b) just offshore, the winds are active, moving right and increasing, generally 060-080/10-16 * there is a transition, where the winds are 010-050/ 6-12. This breeze is making inroads at the beaches right now 3) Gradient wind today will be 070-090 this morning and 080-090 this afternoon strengths of 10-16, up to 12-18 kts Inshore forecast will call for 1) Little wind early this morning 2) Easterly will become established by 10am and build to a nice breeze by 11am a) early on, the winds will quite variable from NE to SE, but this should be long gone by 10am * temps will warm quickly this morning which will help the breeze to develop inshore 3) Should be a nice steady breeze today a) moving a little right mid-day thru early afternoon * wind speeds should increase as it eases right * any light spots may indicate a brief left shift b) late afternoon, watch out for a more permanent left shift if the breeze diminishes Offshore forecast will call for 1) The easterly wind will be established by 10am - still there will be a bit more wind speed offshore versus near shore thru 10-11am - the air/Gulf Stream temp difference will allow for an increase in wind speed as you approach the Stream a) winds may be a tad further right offshore than near shore 10-11am or as long as there is more wind speed offshore versus near shore 2) A nice easterly can be expected mid-day thru early afternoon a) as the air temp warms, the strongest breeze should be inshore versus offshore - there may also be a slight bias in the wind direction to the right inshore versus offshore during the afternoon 3) Be careful late afternoon, after 3pm, for a decrease in wind speed and a left shift - not radical left, but maybe as much as 20-30 degrees Wind forecasts... Wind directions are TRUE, wind speeds in knots, and time is EST Offshore wind forecast Bay forecast 0900: 040-080/ 8-16 040-120/ 3-7 furthest left and lightest near shore 1000: 060-080/12-18 060-080/ 9-15 1100: 060-080/14-19 070-090/11-17 1200: 070-090/13-18 070-090/12-17 1300: 070-090/12-17 080-100/12-17 strongest breeze should favor the right side of the directional range 1400: 070-090/11-17 080-100/12-17 1500: 070-090/10-16 080-100/11-16 1600: 070-090/10-16 080-100/11-16 1700: 050-070/ 8-14 060-080/ 9-14 decrease in wind speed may lead to a left shift General weather...Sunny with highs in the mid 70's. Error factor... 1) Could the winds just die off again - this is very unlikely given the strength of the high and the warmer temps this afternoon a) conversely, I do not see anything that will push wind speeds over 19-22 kts with the average speeds in the low to mid teens, both inshore and offshore b) if there are significant oscillations, the right shift will have more wind speed today 2) Max right inshore could be as much as 110-120, in fact I could make an argument to shift the whole wind forecast right 10 degrees right this afternoon a) max right offshore should be 100 3) Max left inshore will be early this morning, but once the breeze is established, by 10-11am, the max left will be 050-060 both late morning and afternoon a) offshore, max left will be 050-060 early this morning, 060 early afternoon and 040-050 late afternoon Saturday, March 7, 1999 1) Snowstorm will be heading for New England while cold front settles into the northern Gulf of Mexico by late in the day 2) Another sunny day and a bit warmer near 80 3) Most consistent breeze will be morning thru early afternoon then breeze will lighten and become more variable in wind direction a) max wind speeds 12-16, but as low as 6-8 kts during the 2nd half of the afternoon 0900: 090-110/ 9-15 1100: 100-120/12-16 1300: 090-110/10-15 1500: 100-120/ 8-12 1700: 100-140/ 6-10 General weather...Sunny skies with highs near 80 Regards, Ken Campbell