From: Commanders’ Weather Corp 154 Broad St, Suite 1517 Nashua, NH 03062 Tel: 603-882-6789, Fax: 603-882-6661 ************************************************************************************************************** Please hold for the PRIVATE and EXCLUSIVE use of: ROY DISNEY AND THE CREW OF 'PYEWACKET' ************************************************************************************************************** Event: Pineapple Cup - Fort Lauderdale to Montego Bay Departure: early Thursday afternoon, February 4, 1999 Forecast prepared: 7am EST Wednesday, February 3, 1999 Summary: 1) Low pressure along the New England coast this morning with trough SSW to central Florida. a) cold front is lagging behind - located just to the east of Pensacola - bottom-line is that the cold front will stall out over central Florida tonight 2) Weak S-SW gradient wind at the start. Most, if not all, of the scattered showers and t-showers will be over central Florida thru tomorrow afternoon a) this should allow a weak, E-SE sea breeze to develop from the west wall of the Stream to the shoreline 3) Low pressure is expected to dive to the NJ coast tomorrow afternoon and intensify quickly as it moves eastward Thursday night and Friday a) it is still possible for this low to deepen explosively and if it does, the weather sequence Thursday night and Friday will be 3-6 hours faster and 5-10 kts stronger 4) Cold front will approach Thursday night, probably moving across Grand Bahama Island by daybreak Friday, but not reach Hole in the Wall by mid-day Friday a) showers and thundershowers will approach and most likely move onto the race course Thursday night - there will be good W-NW to N-NW wind pressure preceding the showers and thundershowers, but much lighter conditions if they overrun you b) gradient wind will become NW during Thursday night and slowly increase c) once the cold front passes, the winds will freshen, become more solid, and the wind direction will become N-NE - then gradually moving right 5) Showers and thundershowers will precede the cold front by as much as 4-8 hrs and also accompany the front as it moves steadily SSE - most likely reaching Great Inagua Saturday morning and the Windward passage Saturday afternoon a) a 24-36 hour period of fairly stiff N-NE to NE winds will follow this front - seas will also be rather large, 8-12 ft, so the boats coming out of Hole in the Wall after the front passes may have a rough time Friday afternoon/night 6) High pressure will reach the Carolina/Georgia coast Saturday morning and then move ESE a) winds will become quite light and clock Saturday night/Sunday north of San Salvador b) from San Salvador to Great Inagua winds will also clock and diminish, but not until daytime Sunday c) in the Windward Passage Sunday, the winds will be NE to ENE at 15-20 kts - if you have 15-20 kts of wind, you may as well stay 20+ miles offshore Cuba, but - if wind speeds fall under 10-12 kts then you may as well play the Cuban coast ***Cuban coast*** 1) If there is any significant gradient wind at all, 5-10 kts or more, you don’t want to be within 15-20 miles of the coast from 1-2 hrs after dark thru mid-morning due to wind holes 2) If you play the Cuban coast during the afternoon, the best sea breeze influence will be within 10 miles of the coast, but be certain you have enough time to get away from the shoreline during the evening 3) If there is no wind in the Windward Passage, and this seems unlikely, then you will want to play the sea breeze during the afternoon, 5-10 miles offshore, and land breeze at night ( best wind speeds will be within 5 miles of the shore) ****************** 7) Sunday will see another low pass along the New England coast. Its’ cold front may generate another low offshore Georgia/North Florida Sunday night/Monday a) from San Salvador northward, the light winds will become SW and freshen later Sunday night/ Monday b) winds will be quite light between San Salvador and Great Inagua with the threat of SW winds - the further north you are, the greater the threat of significant SW winds c) south of Great Inagua into the Windward Passage, the winds will remain easterly, just lighter and further right 8) Cold front will move SE, but not reach the Windward Passage until Tuesday a) tradewinds will be lighter and more ESE on Monday, all the way from Great Inagua into the Caribbean - this will make the Cuban coast most favorable during Monday afternoon, but I would prefer offshore at night unless you are certain there is no wind offshore ***Approaching Montego Bay*** 1) Wind holes will develop along the beaches shortly before midnight and then spread offshore the remainder of the night, reaching max distance offshore around or shortly after daybreak 2) Tradewinds will freshen and become ENE as you approach Montego Bay during afternoon hrs as the sea breeze enhances the tradewinds and pulls them left a) sea breeze will start 10am to noon 3) Sea breeze will die at the beaches 1st during the evening and then expand offshore as the wind holes grow ****************************** 9) Finally, avoid wind holes on the lee side of the Islands at all times a) wind shadows will develop on the windward side of the Islands, reaching max extent during the AFTERNOON hrs and can be as much as ½ to 1 miles offshore - of course there will be wind enhancements on the corner of the islands, so there may be tradeoff going close on the windward side of the islands. Wind Forecast Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is EST Thursday, February 4, 1999 150 miles per day 180 miles per day 240 miles per day 0700: 160-220/6-10 160-220/6-10 160-220/6-10 1300: 100-140/7-13 100-140/7-143 100-140/7-13 Winds will become quite light in the Gulf Stream, becoming S-SW-W as you move across the Stream. The Stream will have up to 4 kts of current within 10-15 miles of the west wall! Watch out for showers/t-showers, winds will be W-NW as they approach and very light if they overrun you. Any showers/t-showers will kill the sea breeze and pull the winds more W-NW 1900: 240-280/7-13 240-280/7-13 210-270/7-12 General weather:Partly sunny and warm daytime, mostly cloudy at night - temps 65-70 at night. Scattered showers and thundershowers are possible during the afternoon, but a good bet at night. Friday, February 5, 1999 0100: 280-320/7-13 260-320/7-13 250-330/5-10 0700: 010-030/18-24 250-290/9-15 310-350/12-18 1300: 030-050/20-30 010-030/18-24 350-030/15-20 1900: 040-060/15-25 030-050/20-30 030-050/20-25 General weather:Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and brief squalls as the cold front passes and for several hours after it passes. Saturday, February 6, 1999 0100: 040-060/15-25 040-060/20-25 030-050/20-25 0700: 050-070/10-18 040-060/15-20 030-050/15-25 Once the cold front passes, the best wind speeds and seaway will be offshore, away from the Islands - stay on the windward side of the Islands and out of the wind shadows! 1300: 060-100/8-14 040-060/12-20 040-060/15-25 1900: 070-110/8-13 060-080/10-18 050-070/12-20 General weather:Increasing sunshine and decreasing shower threat as you progress thru the day. Sunday, February 7, 1999 0100: 080-120/6-12 060-100/10-15 050-070/10-18 0700: 100-140/5-10 060-100/8-14 040-060/12-18 Winds will be a little stronger and ENE as you enter the Windward Passage 1300: 140-200/6-12 080-120/8-14 060-080/12-20 1900: 200-240/10-15 100-140/6-12 090-110/10-18 General weather:Partly cloudy, but there will be a wide scattering of showers in and near the Windward Passage. Monday, February 8, 1999 0100: 210-250/10-15 100-140/6-12 070-110/9-15 0700: 220-260/8-14 070-090/8-14 070-110/9-15 1900: 270-310/6-12 090-110/10-18 070-090/12-20 Monday thru Wednesday will see normal tradewind weather with partly to mostly sunny skies and possibly a brief shower. Most of the shower activity will be near and north of the Cuban and Haitian coasts. Tuesday, February 9, 1999 0700: 040-060/12-20 070-110/8-14 1300: 060-100/10-18 060-080/12-20 1900: 050-070/12-20 070-090/12-20 Wednesday, February 10, 1999 0700: 060-100/10-18 1000: 050-070/14-22 Regards, Ken Campbell